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时间:2021-10-03 00:16 点击次数:
  本文摘要:Incisive Chinese companies have long been sinking their teeth into their western rivals. Now the country has developed its answer to the “Fangs” phenomenon, one of the remaining crown jewels of the west. 雄心勃勃的中国企业早就将尖牙深深地映射西方竞争对手的身体。


Incisive Chinese companies have long been sinking their teeth into their western rivals. Now the country has developed its answer to the “Fangs” phenomenon, one of the remaining crown jewels of the west. 雄心勃勃的中国企业早就将尖牙深深地映射西方竞争对手的身体。如今,中国早已寻找了对付西方王冠上只剩的宝石之一“FANG”的办法。“FANG”指Facebook、亚马逊(Amazon)、Netflix与谷歌(Google)四家互联网公司(失望的是,谷歌已更名为Alphabet)。

The internet-focused quartet of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (now renamed Alphabet, awkwardly) saw their share prices surge more than 70 per cent, on average, last year, even as the wider US stock market fell. 去年,虽然美国股市广泛呈现出跌势,但FANG的股价平均值大上涨逾70%。Now China is responding with its very own quartet of Bants — Baidu, Alibaba, Netease and Tencent. 如今,中国于是以以自己的四巨头“BANT”——百度(Baidu)、阿里巴巴(Alibaba)、(Netease)与(Tencent)——不予对此。

Since 2013, emerging market equity funds have quadrupled their exposure to China’s new Gang of Four to more than 4 per cent, equivalent to $11bn, according to data from Copley Fund Research, which tracks 121 EM equity funds with combined assets of $235bn. 根据Copley Fund Research公司的数据,自2013年以来,新兴市场股票型基金对中国新的“四巨头”的子母早已刷了两番,配备比例多达4%,相等于110亿美元。Copley追踪资产规模合计为2350亿美元的121只新兴市场股票型基金。Tencent has led the way, with its weighting in the average EM fund rising fourfold to more than 2 per cent since 2011, but Alibaba has shown explosive growth of late, as the first chart shows. 如下面的图一所必,一路领先,自2011年以来,该公司在新兴市场股票基金中的平均值配备权重下跌3倍,多达了2%,但阿里巴巴最近呈现出爆炸式快速增长。

“You can draw parallels to the Fang stocks in the US being, as they are, a mixture of internet search, social networks and ecommerce companies. These four stocks are starting to dominate things in the internet space in emerging markets,” says Steven Holden, founder of Copley. Copley创始人史蒂文霍尔登(Steven Holden)说道:“这四家公司包括了互联网搜寻、社交网络及电子商务,所以你可以将它们与美国的FANG比起。这四家公司于是以开始主导新兴市场的互联网空间。

” Gary Greenberg, head of emerging markets at Hermes Investment Management, who has a weighting of 10.8 per cent to the Bants in his Global EM fund, adds: “We think there is growth here that can continue, cash flow generation that is remarkable relative to Chinese old economy industries, along with some real innovation and disruption. Hermes Investment Management新兴市场主管加里格林伯格(Gary Greenberg)补足道:“我们指出,这四家公司的快速增长可以持续,产生现金流的能力比较中国原有的经济产业很引人注目,还有一些确实的创意和政治宣传。”格林伯格在自己的全球新兴市场基金中对BANT的配备权重为10.8%。“Their underlying economy is growing, especially the consumer service sector, disclosure is steadily improving and scepticism among the international community is high [preventing valuations from rising too far],” Mr Greenberg says. “它们所处的整体经济正在快速增长,特别是在是消费服务业,信息透露也在大大提高,而国际社会的顾虑较高(使得估值没过度攀高),”格林伯格说道。

The rise of the Bants has helped drive a dramatic reshaping of EM equity portfolios since 2012. Allocations to technology stocks in general have risen sharply, hitting a record 20.6 per cent in March, according to Copley, while holdings of energy and materials stocks have slumped in line with plunging commodity prices, as the second chart shows. 自2012年以来,BANT的兴起推展了新兴市场股票投资人组的轻微重组。Copley的数据表明,科技股的配备比例总体上大幅度下降,3月看清创纪录的20.6%,而对能源、材料类股的配备则预示大宗商品价格的下跌而骤减(如下面的图二右图)。Within the internet subsector, which constitutes 6 per cent of the typical EM fund, however, the Chinese heavyweights appear to be elbowing aside their competition. 互联网类股在新兴市场基金配备中平均值占到比6%,而中国的重量级公司或许正在挤掉自己的竞争对手。

Chinese companies now account for 83 per cent of EM equity funds’ internet holdings, with Russia and South Korea accounting for a further 10 per cent between them. 目前,中国企业占到新兴市场股票基金互联网资产的83%,俄罗斯与韩国特一起占到10%。However, the latter are on the slide, with the rise of Bants largely supplanting ownership of more established internet names such as Naver, South Korea’s biggest internet portal operator, and Mail.ru, the internet group controlled by Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov, Mr Holden says. (For those who get hot under the collar about South Korea being classed as an emerging market, equity investors are largely guided by the MSCI EM index, which includes the likes of South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.) 然而,霍尔登回应,俄罗斯与韩国的占比还在上升,因为BANT的兴起相当大程度上代替了历史更加历史悠久的互联网公司的份额,例如韩国仅次于的互联网门户网站运营商Naver,以及俄罗斯亿万富翁阿利舍尔乌斯马诺夫(Alisher Usmanov)掌控的互联网集团Mail.ru。(有人不会对将韩国不属于新兴市场深感反感,但股票投资机构大都根据MSCI明晟新兴市场指数展开投资,该指数划入了韩国、台湾和新加坡)。

“What is becoming clear is the emergence of a ‘big four’ [which] are starting to dominate the sector,” says Mr Holden, with 79 per cent of EM funds holding at least one of the Bants. 霍尔登回应,“更加确切的是‘四大’的兴起,它们于是以开始主导这一行业”, 79%的新兴市场基金持有人BANT中最少一家的股票。Funds managed by Oppenheimer, William Blair, Calamos, Columbia and Delaware as well as Hermes, each have an exposure of at least 8 per cent to the Bants, while Edinburgh-based Baillie Gifford leads the way with weightings of 13.3 per cent and 12.8 per cent respectively in its EM Leading Companies and EM Growth funds respectively. 奥本海默(Oppenheimer)、威廉布莱尔(William Blair)、Calamos、哥伦比亚(Columbia)、特拉华(Delaware)及Hermes等公司管理的基金,每只都对BANT最少有8%的子母,而总部坐落于爱丁堡的Baillie Gifford公司正处于领先,其“新兴市场领先企业基金”(EM Leading Companies)和“新兴市场茁壮基金”(EM Growth)的BANT权重分别为13.3%和12.8%。Richard Sneller, head of emerging market equities at Baillie Gifford, told EM Squared this year that “in many emerging markets the speed with which young consumers are adapting to technological change, in areas such as ecommerce and online shopping, is much faster than in the US. Baillie Gifford新兴市场股票主管理查德斯内勒(Richard Sneller)今年对英国《金融时报》“中出新兴市场”栏目(EM Squared)回应,“在电子商务和在线购物等领域,许多新兴市场的年长消费者适应环境技术变革的速度比美国要更快。

” “Trends that we hoped would emerge 15-20 years ago have come to generate significant cash flows.” “我们在15至20年前期望经常出现的趋势,已开始产生大量的现金流。” The surge in demand for the Bants was in part a response to MSCI’s decision to include some companies listed outside the emerging markets in its flagship EM index. BANT受到冷玉女,部分是因为MSCI明晟要求将一些在新兴市场以外上市的公司划入其旗舰新兴市场指数。


The move, the first stage of which came into effect in November 2015, brought New York-listed Baidu, Netease and Alibaba into the index for the first time, a move that appears to have particularly boosted the latter. 2015年11月,该要求的第一阶段已生效。在纽约上市的百度、和阿里巴巴首次被划入MSCI明晟新兴市场指数,这或许特别是在减少了阿里巴巴的热度。

“Alibaba has captured the largest number of new investors over the last six months. A net 15 per cent of funds opened new positions including TT International, Schroders and Lazard among others,” says Mr Holden, who calculates that the funds in his database have invested a net $840m in Alibaba in the past half year. “在过去6个月里,阿里巴巴俘虏的新投资者数量最多。净15%的基金创建了对它的新头寸,其中还包括TT International、施罗德(Schroders)和瑞德(Lazard)等机构,”霍尔登说道。据他计算出来,他数据库中的基金在过去半年里对阿里巴巴的投资净额超过8.4亿美元。Mutual funds’ holdings of the Bants could rise to higher levels still, with the index weighting of Alibaba, Baidu and Netease due to rise further in May, when MSCI implements the second and final stage of its plan to fully incorporate such stocks in its EM index. 今年5月,当MSCI明晟继续执行其计划的第二个、也是最后一个阶段,把这类股票几乎划入其新兴市场指数中时,阿里巴巴、百度和的指数权重将更进一步增大,所以联合基金对BANT的股权量可能会下降至更高水平。

Mr Greenberg argues that valuations “are not unreasonable” with Tencent trading on 25 times one-year forward earnings, Alibaba at 23 times and Baidu 21 times [he does not hold Netease] “given that their earnings are expected to grow by 25-30 per cent per annum”. 格林伯格认为,“鉴于这些公司的盈利年增长速度预计平均25%至30%”,它们的估值“并非不合理”,一年期预期市盈率为25倍,阿里巴巴为23倍,而百度为21倍(他不持有人股票)。“These are good businesses at reasonable prices, especially since smartphone usage is increasing and penetration for commerce, advertising and services online is also growing rapidly, providing opportunities for monetisation of the user base,” he adds. “这些都是价格合理的好公司,特别是在是,智能手机的用于在普及,对商业、广告和线上服务的渗入也很快不断扩大,获取了利用用户群体赚的机遇,”他接着说道。Mr Holden sees other reasons to expect their weighting to rise still further. More than 20 per cent of funds still do not have any exposure to any of these four stocks, with some high-profile managers, such as Aberdeen and First State, eschewing Chinese internet stocks entirely, Mr Holden says. 霍尔登则看见了这些公司的权重预计不会进一步提高的其他原因。

霍尔登说道,逾20%的基金仍没配备这四只股票中的任何一只,有些名声显要的基金公司,比如安本(Aberdeen)和首域投资(First State),几乎不摸中国互联网企业的股票。Moreover, the funds in his database are still, in aggregate, underweight both Tencent and Alibaba compared with their index weighting. 另外,总体而言,他的数据库里的基金对和阿里巴巴的配备比例仍高于这两家公司的指数权重。“In the face of impressive price action in Tencent, Baidu and Alibaba from the lows of early February, EM funds may find it more difficult to avoid these stocks going forwards,” he says. “面临、百度和阿里巴巴股价较2月初低位的大幅度上升,新兴市场基金也许不会找到,未来更加无以避免这些股票,”他说道。



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